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Economic & Political Research

CGLA Economic and Political Research Practice focuses on analyzing the underlying economic and political trends in the different countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as trends in the global economy for clients in the private and public sectors. CGLA Research Practice can help domestic and foreign clients to make accurate assessments of how local conditions and the international context can affect their investment prospects and risks in the different countries of the region. CGLA Research Practice can also help central and local governments, as well as central banks, to assess the impact of alternative policy measures. The Practice is led by Dr. Claudio Loser (Bio.) and Ambassador Marcilio Marques Moreira (Bio.). It draws on the full resources of the Centennial Group.

CGLA offers clients the following products:

  • Detailed analysis and projections under different scenarios that would help clients to anticipate major turning points in investment conditions. Projections for major domestic variables - GDP growth, inflation, current account balance, exchange and interest rates, fiscal accounts, etc., as well as major international variables that affect them;
  • Monitoring of early economic and political warning indicators to identify risks and/or opportunities for clients;
  • Analysis of key developments as they unfold - policy announcements, major data releases, political and congressional events, external and domestic shocks - and how they impact clients' specific areas of concern. More elaborate reports on such developments can be prepared in cases where the sector implications are important and of particular interest to clients;
  • Assessment of whether financial markets' reactions to developments have led to under-valuation of assets or other investment opportunities;
  • Monitoring and identification of changing structural, legislative, and institutional trends and the opportunities they present to clients; in-depth analysis of such trends which may have been under-appreciated by the markets but which may have important implications for specific clients;
  • Preparation of specific reports, based on rigorous economic analysis, presented in a user-friendly format, on issues of importance, particularly on those on which we have views that may enhance the investment possibilities of clients;
  • Assessment of sovereign risk as well as specific risks (political, policy, economic, or currency); assessments of sovereign risk for banks and corporations which, contrary to that of rating agencies are independent (that is, not paid by the governments which are being rated); advise to central and local governments on policies and measures that could improve the risk of their debt instruments;
  • Assistance with different scenario-planning for private sector and public companies;
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